Campaign Pain with Palin/McCain: Distortion, Disarray, Desperation, and Beyond
10/29/08
by William Hessell

The most notable day in John McCain's presidential campaign occurred on a Friday in late August, when he surprised the nation with his selection of Sarah Palin as his vice presidential choice.  His timing was brilliant, as he up-staged the grand finale of the Democratic Convention and stole the media headlines away from Barack Obama's acceptance speech and the impressive energy that was evident at the Denver convention.  Obama's bounce from his historic selection was minimal, as the media and the public were captivated by McCain's unexpected choice.  Instead, a strong initial bounce in the national polls went to the McCain/Palin ticket, and continued through the Republican convention and into early September.  The fascination over Palin was astounding, never had a vice presidential choice received so much intense and persistent attention.  The race had changed, but not in ways that might have been anticipated by the initial positive response.  What was a politically brilliant short-term highlight for several weeks was to become a lingering disaster that derailed the Straight Talk Express, left the campaign in a floundering state of disarray, and desperate in its search for issues upon which to focus.  It was one thing for McCain's choice to upstage Barack Obama, what he didn't expect was that his choice would upstage himself.

Some of the problems with the Palin selection soon became obvious, others took more time to develop.  McCain's experience argument against Obama was immediately neutralized, since Palin had no experience on the national level.  She added much energy, vitality, and relative youthfulness to the ticket, but this had the drawback of making McCain seem even older than his age, like one who is considerably past his prime.  She initially interested more women in the ticket, and the Republican base became much more enthusiastic about the campaign than they had been previously, but her conservative and fundamentalist views offended more women than they attracted, and women nationally began to support Obama by a sizeable margin.  While the conservative base loved her, independents began to move more towards Obama.  When she began to have media contact on her own, her political knowledge deficit became obvious, and her contact with the media was drastically limited.  She performed well when giving scripted speeches, often drawing larger and more energized crowds than McCain himself, which was an unenviable position for the head of the ticket to be in.  Much media attention remained focused on her rather than McCain, and she reveled in the spotlight, rapidly assuming celebrity status.  Republican attempts to place a negative "celebrity" status on Obama were quickly muted.  In media and public interest, it was as if it had become a Palin/McCain ticket, rather than the opposite.  The Straight Talk Express even morphed into the Joe the Plumber Tour, in a desperate attempt to regain momentum that was being lost to Obama.

The Palin factor is certainly only one of several primary issues affecting the outcome.  The collapse of the economy has played a major role, shifting much of the focus away from the wars in the Middle East and concern over terrorism, and onto issues of domestic mismanagement that Republicans, including McCain, must assume much responsibility for, with their penchant for free market deregulation and tax policies favoring corporations and the wealthy.  When Obama talked of "spreading the wealth around" he entered into highly dangerous ground politically, but in the current context highlighted by a collapsing economy especially damaging the middle and lower economic classes, charges of wealth distribution and "socialism" may lack the traction they otherwise might have. The wealth of the nation has already been insidiously redistributed during the last thirty years, primarily instigated by Republican leadership and influence.  This redistribution began with Reagan economic and tax policies favoring the wealthy in the 1980's and was escalated by the Republican controlled Congress in the late 1990's and more recently by the Bush administration, resulting in a shrinking middle class and more people falling into a financially disadvantaged status, while the wealth of a distinct minority of citizens, and of many corporations, has spiraled upwards.  When the housing, banking, and credit crises developed, the need for governmental intervention was obvious.  In acting to use tax-payer money to bail out corporations for losses that their own policies and actions had caused, in order to prevent further losses and stabilize the economy, the need for capitalism and "socialism" to interact and work together was made obvious.  Arguments for the pendulum to swing to favor more governmental steps to reverse some failed and imbalanced policies and to level the economic playing field somewhat, rather than rely solely on "trickle down economics", are strengthened.  The socialism argument against Obama therefore lacks the legs it might have had at other times.

Two other major factors determining the elections outcome must be mentioned.  One is the unpopularity of George W. Bush, which is so obvious it deserves little mention, other than noting that any senator who voted with Bush proposals 90% of the time, and who cannot raise one major campaign issue on which he will markedly deviate from Bush policies, would be expected to have much trouble gaining voter support outside of the Republican base.  Any claim for McCain to run as a "change" candidate has little substance and is highly suspect. The other factor is much more notable, and that is Barack Obama himself.  His rise from a relatively untested, audacious young senator at the outset of his campaign for the presidency to become an extremely impressive, steady, substantive person who has demonstrated a positive, credible leadership style bodes well for his ability to serve the nation. He has kept his campaign focused on the positive vision he has for our future and on forward-thinking ways to surmount the serious problems we are currently facing. His concern for people seems genuine.  He deflected the barrage of attacks launched against him with strength and directness, and was not knocked off stride, keeping his focus on his plans for making needed changes.  Many initially neutral observers have become believers, some calling him potentially a rare transformational leader.  Let's hope he has the chance.